Our friend Curtis over at Endless Spin apparently now concurs with Kevin (have you seen a screw? I only thought it was loose, not missing) Lamoureux that the Maples nomination is a scandal in proportion to the Interlake in 1995 that had Justice Monin state he had never seen "so many liars" in all his years on the bench, in reference to the Conservatives that testified at the inquiry into the vote rigging.
Curtis has now discovered this newly minted scandal because Kelvin (Oh God, I miss Shelly Glover) Goertzen issues a press release asking the RCMP to investigate a political party's internal nomination process.
We would also like to restate that these are merely allegations, ones already being looked into by Elections Manitoba, at the request of the Premier's office. Curtis, who understands or professes to understand the political process in regards to nominations, should know that in any nomination there are often ruffled feathers, but at the end of the day it's an internal party process.
To compare these allegations with the widespread scheme among senior Conservatives to try and rig the outcome of a general election involving payments and manipulating vulnerable aboriginal people is specious, at best.
We know Lamoureux is feeling the heat in his backyard, so that explains his more than usual erratic behaviour. But what could be the motivation for this written request for an RCMP investigation by Goertzen?
Well, certainly it would be a coup for the Tories to say that the NDP is currently under RCMP investigation for their interference in the democratic process.
So what the hey? Give it a shot, right?
However, if Kelvin, Kevin and Curtis are so concerned about the democratic process, why do they not ask for an investigation into the Carman or Portage nominations, which involve allegations of block-purchasing of party memberships and other manipulations by 23 Kennedy?
We submit that Curtis should know better, but are willing to cut him a little slack as his desk is close enough to hear the constant inane nattering of his woefully under-talented boss, whose thoughts we are told frequently wander to the bitter taste of having his dream job at the Leg cut short, in part, by the Tory Interlake shenanigans.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Poll smoking, the December edition
We admit we have to continue to rely on our regular emailers for analysis of the ongoing saga of the Probe-Free Press quarterly poll results, the latest of which was featured Saturday.
But it didn't take much help from others for us to realize there is something very interesting going on at Probe and the higher minds at Winnipeg's broadsheet. However, other folks have helped with some of the following observations that we have cobbled together here.
First off, it’s worth noting never has an instalment of the provincial vote intention numbers required such an advance set up as these.
Probe's Chris Adams wrote a dense three-part snoozer in the editorial pages the week before these numbers came out, boiling down roughly to the point that each party needed middle-of-the-road voters and women to win. Thanks Dr. Adams.
Then, when the numbers appear, gone are the previous triumphal statements from Probe's Scott McKay about the death spiral of the NDP and the meteoric rise of the Tories. Hmm, why is that?
Well, it might be partially due to the fact that the Tory "lead" that had them so excited a few months ago has completely evaporated even in their own numbers. They also discovered that any of the Tories’ gains have been in rural seats (and if they had any better data, they would realize it's pretty much isolated in seats the Tories already hold).
Also they have finally woken up to the fact that Gary Doer and the Manitoba NDP are super, super strong in Winnipeg -- the key to the whole enchilada.
But could it be that Probe and the Free Press have realized, as this space has been pointing out for some time, that there have been some wild oddities in Probe's numbers that don't seem to synch with other info out there?
One such oddity was admitted to in Saturday's story.
"The NDP are ahead of the Tories in the city centre, the southeast, southwest and in the northeast. The Tories enjoy a lead in the northwest, which McKay said is likely a statistical anomaly, considering it is the only quadrant of the city where the Tories have no seats at all." (Emphasis is ours.)
Right, in the quadrant of the city where there are no Tory seats, team Huey is ahead. Nonsense, of course. And it’s written off as a mere "anomaly".
Well, another anomaly is one that McKay doesn't point out, regarding his assertion about the NDP leading in the southwest quadrant -- where the NDP currently has 5 ½ seats (with half of Fort Rouge crossing the Assiniboine into the city centre) out of 9 ½ seats.
They haven’t posted the news release on this yet, so we haven’t seen the breakouts, but for the NDP to be leading 47 to 33 in Winnipeg, and “losing” in one quadrant, it’s pretty safe to assume the lead in the southwest quadrant is significant, too.
So it's worth thinking about the likelihood of the NDP carrying a significant lead in the southwest where three of these seats just came into the NDP fold for the first time ever in 2003, by small margins (Fort Garry – 87, Seine River – 732, St. Norbert – 735).
Plus the other four non-NDP seats are REALLY non-NDP seats, with comfortable PC majorities (and in the case of River Heights, a comfortable Liberal seat which could only really be challenged by a strong Tory).
So, either the NDP is poised to pick up a couple of seats among the following: River Heights, Charleswood, Tuxedo and Fort Whyte -- or Probe may have another major "anomaly" in their numbers.
We are also reminded of Angus Reid’s comments that we have quoted in the past (here and here) about the lack of good public domain polling, because media organizations aren’t willing to pay for the good stuff. We believe this view is still valid here.
We will also repeat our complaint that Probe doesn't attach the leader's names to the vote intention, which discounts popularity (or lack thereof) of leaders and increases ambiguity between federal and provincial parties -- so it doesn't do a great job of replicating a theoretical provincial election.
And the other longstanding beef we have is that the very surface nature of the surveys, tacked onto Probe’s quarterly omnibus product which focuses largely on other clients’ questions, like investing and beer preferences, gives the numbers – flawed or otherwise – no context.
Specifically, there is no reason offered as to WHY we are seeing the changes in the numbers. So, in the past, McKay simply guessed about apparent falling NDP fortunes, but he had no data to back that up with.
In this instalment, though, McKay’s fervour has clearly been tempered, so he doesn’t even hazard to guess why things are shaping up the way his numbers are suggesting, except to say: "The urban electorate must feel somewhat satisfied with the NDP…They are projecting an aura of stability and centrism, which Winnipeg voters are looking for."
Still a bit of a stretch, as he has no idea what the urban electorate is looking for, because it doesn’t appear that he asked them.
In the meantime, though, let’s look for some hints as to why support for Doer’s NDP may actually be increasing inside the Perimeter and declining in Tory rural incumbent seats.
What major event or issue could have taken place since the last published survey that could move these numbers?
Well, a good candidate for this might be the pause (or moratorium) on new hog barns accompanied by new water quality rules – something that is likely much more popular in Winnipeg than in some rural seats.
This issue could be one clue. But as we said, Probe and the Free Press don’t know, because apparently they didn’t ask. (We note that in their last outing they did ask about top issues, which they may have done this time. But without linking those issues to voting intention in the survey’s methodology, it’s a pretty meaningless exercise).
Another interesting thing is there would seem to be absolutely no negative effect on NDP support of the OlyWest controversey whatsoever in the two quadrants, the northeast and the southeast, that contain the neighbourhoods adjacent to the proposed controversial slaughterhouse.
Overall, though, we suppose we should congratulate Probe for finally coming to the realization that the NDP is still in great shape to win in an upcoming election.
But it didn't take much help from others for us to realize there is something very interesting going on at Probe and the higher minds at Winnipeg's broadsheet. However, other folks have helped with some of the following observations that we have cobbled together here.
First off, it’s worth noting never has an instalment of the provincial vote intention numbers required such an advance set up as these.
Probe's Chris Adams wrote a dense three-part snoozer in the editorial pages the week before these numbers came out, boiling down roughly to the point that each party needed middle-of-the-road voters and women to win. Thanks Dr. Adams.
Then, when the numbers appear, gone are the previous triumphal statements from Probe's Scott McKay about the death spiral of the NDP and the meteoric rise of the Tories. Hmm, why is that?
Well, it might be partially due to the fact that the Tory "lead" that had them so excited a few months ago has completely evaporated even in their own numbers. They also discovered that any of the Tories’ gains have been in rural seats (and if they had any better data, they would realize it's pretty much isolated in seats the Tories already hold).
Also they have finally woken up to the fact that Gary Doer and the Manitoba NDP are super, super strong in Winnipeg -- the key to the whole enchilada.
But could it be that Probe and the Free Press have realized, as this space has been pointing out for some time, that there have been some wild oddities in Probe's numbers that don't seem to synch with other info out there?
One such oddity was admitted to in Saturday's story.
"The NDP are ahead of the Tories in the city centre, the southeast, southwest and in the northeast. The Tories enjoy a lead in the northwest, which McKay said is likely a statistical anomaly, considering it is the only quadrant of the city where the Tories have no seats at all." (Emphasis is ours.)
Right, in the quadrant of the city where there are no Tory seats, team Huey is ahead. Nonsense, of course. And it’s written off as a mere "anomaly".
Well, another anomaly is one that McKay doesn't point out, regarding his assertion about the NDP leading in the southwest quadrant -- where the NDP currently has 5 ½ seats (with half of Fort Rouge crossing the Assiniboine into the city centre) out of 9 ½ seats.
They haven’t posted the news release on this yet, so we haven’t seen the breakouts, but for the NDP to be leading 47 to 33 in Winnipeg, and “losing” in one quadrant, it’s pretty safe to assume the lead in the southwest quadrant is significant, too.
So it's worth thinking about the likelihood of the NDP carrying a significant lead in the southwest where three of these seats just came into the NDP fold for the first time ever in 2003, by small margins (Fort Garry – 87, Seine River – 732, St. Norbert – 735).
Plus the other four non-NDP seats are REALLY non-NDP seats, with comfortable PC majorities (and in the case of River Heights, a comfortable Liberal seat which could only really be challenged by a strong Tory).
So, either the NDP is poised to pick up a couple of seats among the following: River Heights, Charleswood, Tuxedo and Fort Whyte -- or Probe may have another major "anomaly" in their numbers.
We are also reminded of Angus Reid’s comments that we have quoted in the past (here and here) about the lack of good public domain polling, because media organizations aren’t willing to pay for the good stuff. We believe this view is still valid here.
We will also repeat our complaint that Probe doesn't attach the leader's names to the vote intention, which discounts popularity (or lack thereof) of leaders and increases ambiguity between federal and provincial parties -- so it doesn't do a great job of replicating a theoretical provincial election.
And the other longstanding beef we have is that the very surface nature of the surveys, tacked onto Probe’s quarterly omnibus product which focuses largely on other clients’ questions, like investing and beer preferences, gives the numbers – flawed or otherwise – no context.
Specifically, there is no reason offered as to WHY we are seeing the changes in the numbers. So, in the past, McKay simply guessed about apparent falling NDP fortunes, but he had no data to back that up with.
In this instalment, though, McKay’s fervour has clearly been tempered, so he doesn’t even hazard to guess why things are shaping up the way his numbers are suggesting, except to say: "The urban electorate must feel somewhat satisfied with the NDP…They are projecting an aura of stability and centrism, which Winnipeg voters are looking for."
Still a bit of a stretch, as he has no idea what the urban electorate is looking for, because it doesn’t appear that he asked them.
In the meantime, though, let’s look for some hints as to why support for Doer’s NDP may actually be increasing inside the Perimeter and declining in Tory rural incumbent seats.
What major event or issue could have taken place since the last published survey that could move these numbers?
Well, a good candidate for this might be the pause (or moratorium) on new hog barns accompanied by new water quality rules – something that is likely much more popular in Winnipeg than in some rural seats.
This issue could be one clue. But as we said, Probe and the Free Press don’t know, because apparently they didn’t ask. (We note that in their last outing they did ask about top issues, which they may have done this time. But without linking those issues to voting intention in the survey’s methodology, it’s a pretty meaningless exercise).
Another interesting thing is there would seem to be absolutely no negative effect on NDP support of the OlyWest controversey whatsoever in the two quadrants, the northeast and the southeast, that contain the neighbourhoods adjacent to the proposed controversial slaughterhouse.
Overall, though, we suppose we should congratulate Probe for finally coming to the realization that the NDP is still in great shape to win in an upcoming election.
Friday, December 15, 2006
McFadyen to Harper: thanks a bunch
From the Globe this am:Ernie Michaleski, a farmer from Dauphin, Man., said opposition to government plans is growing among farmers, who have recently been loyal Conservative voters.
Which may not actually affect too many seats in a federal election. But provincially, Huey has a split caucus, an unclear position on the Wheat Board."It's so far out of touch with reality and common sense," he said. "There are Conservative voters who aren't going to be able to vote Conservative after this."
But worse, they are on the record AGAINST supporting the Wheat Board.
From the CJOB's Jeff Keele on Nov. 21 (emphasis added):
The Manitoba legislature shows support for CWB
Two symbolic resolutions on the Canadian Wheat Board were passed by the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba Monday night.
A motion to maintain the board’s single desk passed by a 34-15 margin, with a resolution to hold a farmer plebiscite passing 30-15.
The Opposition Tories voted against both motions. Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen says a plebiscite in Manitoba is pointless because Ottawa is already holding a plebiscite for barley farmers. McFadyen adds a vote on wheat is not necessary because the Federal Government is not planning to make any changes to its single-desk now.
The Doer Government and the opposition Liberals are calling for a plebiscite on both desks immediately.
Huey can't be enjoying this Christmas gift from Harper.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Team building the Portage way
It's going to be really hard for the Tories to spin positives out of the bitter nomination battle that ended tonight in a nail-biter that went completely south for the denziens of 23 Kennedy and Wee Huey.
David Faurschou (which is, of course, from the French dialect of Languedoc for "fire cabbage") burnt up his competition, Ryan Matthews, by only a handfull of votes, according to Mia. There was a big turn out, including scores of folks from local Hutterite colonies. Well done, David.
So, what has been accomplished here with the Huey-backed Matthews challenge? A bitter nomination battle against an incumbent MLA. Lots of acrimony. Unseemly dirty laundry for all the world to see. Reinforcement of the label that there is no partisan fighting worse than Tory in-fighting. Lots of activist effort put into a nomination battle in a "safe" seat. And the ultimate result of the nomination: status quo.
Did we miss anything?
Oh and, uh, very awkward caucus meetings in the offing.
David Faurschou (which is, of course, from the French dialect of Languedoc for "fire cabbage") burnt up his competition, Ryan Matthews, by only a handfull of votes, according to Mia. There was a big turn out, including scores of folks from local Hutterite colonies. Well done, David.
So, what has been accomplished here with the Huey-backed Matthews challenge? A bitter nomination battle against an incumbent MLA. Lots of acrimony. Unseemly dirty laundry for all the world to see. Reinforcement of the label that there is no partisan fighting worse than Tory in-fighting. Lots of activist effort put into a nomination battle in a "safe" seat. And the ultimate result of the nomination: status quo.
Did we miss anything?
Oh and, uh, very awkward caucus meetings in the offing.
First, Spirited Energy ...
... and yesterday the 'Peg Sun takes a run at the Richardsons.
Nice, eh?
Who's next? Mother Theresa?
Smells like telco spirit ...
To our friend Curtis: the fed Tories' move on telco deregulation could well mean an acceleration of the long-rumoured MTS buy-out by Bell. That's the end of our own telephone company. End. Over and out. Sayonara.
Does this mean Gary Filmon and Hugh McFadyen are to blame? Well, frankly, yes. They sold MTS, as you know.
MTS could today be company to the lone remaining Canadian public telco, SaskTel, for example, which will continue and deliver the best rates possible to all consumers in that province, including rural folks, as SaskTel doesn't have to deliver profits for shareholders. Brandon and rural Manitoba subscribers especially won't fare very well on local service rates -- as has been the case since MTS's privatization.
As this press release today indicates, major bulk users will do increasingly well in the new environment. Not so sure it's a great idea for regular folks.
Are Manitobans up in arms that MTS was privatized and now many Manitobans pay substantially higher rates for local service (while long distance rates have dropped)? No.
Are we better off, though, with a privatized MTS? Probably not.
This will be especially more apparent if MTS is bought by Bell or Telus and hundreds of Manitoba jobs disappear, on top of the rate increases.
So, then we can really give Gary F. and Hugh a huge moooo-wah (kiss-kiss).
(Oh, in case you think it's unfair to tag this to Huey, he bragged about his involvement in the sale of MTS shares in his leadership bio.)
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Text above this line: 250 words.
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PS - We are not the caucus.
Does this mean Gary Filmon and Hugh McFadyen are to blame? Well, frankly, yes. They sold MTS, as you know.
MTS could today be company to the lone remaining Canadian public telco, SaskTel, for example, which will continue and deliver the best rates possible to all consumers in that province, including rural folks, as SaskTel doesn't have to deliver profits for shareholders. Brandon and rural Manitoba subscribers especially won't fare very well on local service rates -- as has been the case since MTS's privatization.
As this press release today indicates, major bulk users will do increasingly well in the new environment. Not so sure it's a great idea for regular folks.
Are Manitobans up in arms that MTS was privatized and now many Manitobans pay substantially higher rates for local service (while long distance rates have dropped)? No.
Are we better off, though, with a privatized MTS? Probably not.
This will be especially more apparent if MTS is bought by Bell or Telus and hundreds of Manitoba jobs disappear, on top of the rate increases.
So, then we can really give Gary F. and Hugh a huge moooo-wah (kiss-kiss).
(Oh, in case you think it's unfair to tag this to Huey, he bragged about his involvement in the sale of MTS shares in his leadership bio.)
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Text above this line: 250 words.
------------
PS - We are not the caucus.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Dear members of the "Committee" ...
Question Period is the Opposition's opportunity to get noticed. It's a chance every day to perform live in front of the news media and show them what you've got. There are other ways to get your message out, but there's no more direct and available way for Huey and Co. to garner attention.
Given this fact (which actually is a fact, unlike the points asserted with that same moot court intro by McFaded repeatedly in this session), things are looking mighty grim for the boy wonder.
Now you might say we're biased -- which we are -- but it is absolutely undeniable that this Fall session, which is set to end Thursday, has been an unmitigated disaster for the Tories. They have made no mark. They were virtually ignored by the media, which has been dying to get any goods on the government at all.
As the 'Peg Sun's Rochelle Squires put it earlier this week, it looks like they spent most of their research time at the bottom of their blue boxes reading from their own old news releases on Crocus in order to formulate their questions.
That can't be good ... if you're Baby Huey, that is.
He's had most of a year to make a mark and the most he's had to show for it is cheesy radio attack ads on the NDP (by Barb Biggar you say? You've got to be kidding!) and a big goose egg in terms of results from the Don Orchard-led CSI: Tuxedo exercise.
It's somewhat sad, but true -- by the end of his time, Stu Murray performed far better in Question Period than Huey. Stu would have been a more effective alternative to Gary Doer today, by a long shot, than McFaded. And Stu exuded sincerity, as opposed to the smarmy downtown-lawyer countenance of his replacement.
To Myrna, Bonnie, Mavis, and any other members of "The Committee", we really thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Thank you very much.
-----------------------------------
Oh, one other thing, is Kevin off his meds again?
Just needed to say that. Carry on.
Given this fact (which actually is a fact, unlike the points asserted with that same moot court intro by McFaded repeatedly in this session), things are looking mighty grim for the boy wonder.
Now you might say we're biased -- which we are -- but it is absolutely undeniable that this Fall session, which is set to end Thursday, has been an unmitigated disaster for the Tories. They have made no mark. They were virtually ignored by the media, which has been dying to get any goods on the government at all.
As the 'Peg Sun's Rochelle Squires put it earlier this week, it looks like they spent most of their research time at the bottom of their blue boxes reading from their own old news releases on Crocus in order to formulate their questions.
That can't be good ... if you're Baby Huey, that is.
He's had most of a year to make a mark and the most he's had to show for it is cheesy radio attack ads on the NDP (by Barb Biggar you say? You've got to be kidding!) and a big goose egg in terms of results from the Don Orchard-led CSI: Tuxedo exercise.
It's somewhat sad, but true -- by the end of his time, Stu Murray performed far better in Question Period than Huey. Stu would have been a more effective alternative to Gary Doer today, by a long shot, than McFaded. And Stu exuded sincerity, as opposed to the smarmy downtown-lawyer countenance of his replacement.
To Myrna, Bonnie, Mavis, and any other members of "The Committee", we really thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Thank you very much.
-----------------------------------
Oh, one other thing, is Kevin off his meds again?
Just needed to say that. Carry on.
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Bartley gets it partly right, but mostly wrong
In his deep analysis of the OlyWest situation, Bartley Kives correctly points out the troubles of senior partner in the project, Olymel, which have been going on for months and that the company has been sending signals that it could opt out of the project long before the announcement of a provincial pause on new hog barns.
He also correctly points out it is odd that a moratorium is an issue at all for the proponents, as they said no new barns were needed.
He unfortunately decides to vamp his old music reviewer's cynicism-of-all-things by saying "The answer, OF COURSE, is it appears both OlyWest and the NDP government have been less than honest with Manitobans." (Our emphasis added.)
Of course? How so "of course" Bartley?
It seems odd for someone whose coverage over the past months made it clear he felt, as many city-dwellers do, that the pig industry is odious and there are too many barns in the province, to now swat with the backhand after the Doer government did the right thing.
Kives's naiveté shows through with his statement that the moratorium is simply a pre-election move, "balancing the wrath of hog producers against the support of green voters". Neither block is all that significant in an electoral sense, so this piece of analysis is complete nonsense.
What Winnipeg-based Kives -- who still produces his canoe-camping-cross-country-skiing column weekly -- misses is the risk Doer and co. are taking in alienating rural voters. NDP support in such seats as
Politics, of course, plays a part in all government policy. However, Kives would go a lot further down the road to reinventing himself as a serious political journalist, and not just a former rock-and-roll reviewer, if his analyses were based a little more on knowledge, and less on inside-the-perimeter posing.
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Dion??? Stelmach???
We're betting Schulander is wishing today's apparent zeitgeist of parties picking dark horses to lead them was in vogue a year ago.
Anyway, among the dissected entrails of the day after, an observation jumped out at us.
Susan Delacourt in today's Toronto Star:
"At the big NDP convention in Quebec City a few months ago, Layton was poking fun at all the Liberal leadership candidates, with the notable exception of Dion. Rattling off the list of the other candidates' flaws or foibles, the only thing Layton could say about Dion was that he was 'a man of principle and conviction and therefore almost certain not to be elected leader of the Liberal party.' "
Yikes.
Anyway, among the dissected entrails of the day after, an observation jumped out at us.
Susan Delacourt in today's Toronto Star:
"At the big NDP convention in Quebec City a few months ago, Layton was poking fun at all the Liberal leadership candidates, with the notable exception of Dion. Rattling off the list of the other candidates' flaws or foibles, the only thing Layton could say about Dion was that he was 'a man of principle and conviction and therefore almost certain not to be elected leader of the Liberal party.' "
Yikes.
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