The news is so slow these days that the most interesting thing the Sun could muster today is a federal Tory trial balloon via Tom Blowback about naming the Human Rights Museum after John Diefenbaker.
Even if it were a remotely serious suggestion, no other federal museum is named after anybody as far as we're aware. The Museum of Civilization, the War Museum, the National Gallery -- none have any politicians' names plastered all over it.
That seems to be the fate of other institutions, such as airports and federal buildings.
Not that anyone really pays attention to even that. Does anyone say they're going to the Richardson airport to catch a flight? Does anyone say they're going to the Stanley Knowles Building to enlist in the armed forces?
Anyway, to slap the Dief on the front of the first national museum outside of Ottawa seems a bit goofy, regardless of the bejowled former PM's alleged bona fides on human rights (who knew?).
And being an institution in Winnipeg, it might be a bit of a head-scratcher for River City denizens to get the link between a 1950s-era PM from Saskatchewan and a prized new waterfront gem for Manitoba.
----------------------------------------
It's ... so ... slow ... on ... the ... blogging ... front ... tooooo
However, if you really want the full blast of sour grapes in post-election Manitoba, you have only had to look to the letters to the editor of the dailies over the past two weeks.
If you ever believed published letters were any indication of public opinion, you would also have to believe no one actually voted for the NDP and there is about to be a mass migration of people to the west and east due to the historic result on May 22. (Hmm, didn't we hear those threats in 1999 and 2003, too?)
Anyhoo, it would be nice to see more of our Tory chums out there get reinvigored and back to their keyboards -- at least for some interesting reading over the morning cuppa joe. Gawd nose it ain't happening in the newspaper.
C'mon guys. Get to work.
------------------------------------
Today, 57 MLAs get sworn in and go to the House tomorrow to hear a short, we believe, Speech from the Throne. It will be in some ways a pretty similar House to the one that last sat on April 20, hours before the writ was dropped.
Gary Doer and the NDP still firmly in charge. Huey at the front bench opposite. The Liberals remain as the Gang of Two.
But it will be a different House, too. More women than ever. The first woman of colour, ever. A larger NDP majority in the House than ... ever.
It will be different for Huey, too. Once the carrier of great expectations from his party, the media and pundits, he is now humbled, with one less net seat than he had, sharing the front-bench with a wily yet vendictive veteran having only won by the skin of her teeth (Bonnie), and rumblings about whether he will even survive as leader to take another run at the big chair.
My, what a few short weeks can do.
----------------------------------------------
Speaking of leadership, has anyone else noticed that Schulander has kept all his leadership videos up on YouTube and has been promoting them on his website? (Don't bother taking it all down. It's all been saved for posterity.)
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Ah, the Wellington saga continues
Today the Winnipeg Sun recounts the latest claim out of Wellington -- this one from former candidate Angie Ramos that the NDP intimidated her to drop out before the nomination deadline.
In a letter to the Sun, Ramos writes she was "forced" to sign a resignation letter and she was "coerced" to drop out.
"Forced" to resign? Like what, she was tied up?
"Coerced"? That's a pretty major 10-dollar word.
This smells like another caper with Joe Chan's fingerprints all over it.
Joe Chan you may recall is the former associate of Councillor Harvey "weird old man" Smith, who vied for the Wellington nomination, but ran into the small problem of not disclosing his former company's run-in with the law on Internet child porn charges.
Chan is also frequently singled out as the figure behind the dirty tricks that often pepper Smith's campaigns, like hiring kids to destroy opponents' signage and dropping "dirty" flyers about opponents. In Smith's race against former CBC host Maureen Pendergast, Chan is widely recognized as having gone on an intense homophobic whisper campaign among ethnic communities in the area.
But some time before the writ drop, Chan was disqualified from the nomination and ran as an independent.
Incumbent Conrad Santos dropped out of the running when news of his own possible nomination hi jinx came to light. Angie, by all accounts a nice woman, was previously an unknown quantity in the NDP. She ran for the party nomination and won with the support of the membership signed up by Chan.
As you will recall, at the time of the writ, Chan ran as an independent, but all his materials were in NDP green and orange. Santos also ran, but came dead last.
So, shortly before the official Elections Manitoba nomination deadline Ramos quit, citing health problems. The party convinced Flor Marcelino to carry the party banner and made a direct appointment. Flor won.
Word on the street is Chan had his hands all over the Ramos nomination as his back-up plan. Ramos would resign after the nomination deadline, the NDP would have no candidate in Wellington. Chan would run as the seeming-NDP candidate and scoop up the seat in the vacuum.
Ramos, however, couldn't handle the pressure of the deception and was literally sick with worry about it and came clean before the nomination deadline, messing up Chan's grand plan.
Now, it seems the questionable Chan has somehow convinced Ramos to fall back in line and has enlisted the questionably-stable Kevin Lamoureux to make some hay with the invention of a new tale for the media.
At least it isn't dull.
--------------------------
Both Samyn and Chantal Hebert [UPDATE: as did Mia] wax eloquent about Gary Doer's new status as the official dean of the First Ministers' club. It will be very interesting over the next few years to see Manitoba's place on the national scene even more elevated and what that could mean for the Keystone Province.
In a letter to the Sun, Ramos writes she was "forced" to sign a resignation letter and she was "coerced" to drop out.
"Forced" to resign? Like what, she was tied up?
"Coerced"? That's a pretty major 10-dollar word.
This smells like another caper with Joe Chan's fingerprints all over it.
Joe Chan you may recall is the former associate of Councillor Harvey "weird old man" Smith, who vied for the Wellington nomination, but ran into the small problem of not disclosing his former company's run-in with the law on Internet child porn charges.
Chan is also frequently singled out as the figure behind the dirty tricks that often pepper Smith's campaigns, like hiring kids to destroy opponents' signage and dropping "dirty" flyers about opponents. In Smith's race against former CBC host Maureen Pendergast, Chan is widely recognized as having gone on an intense homophobic whisper campaign among ethnic communities in the area.
But some time before the writ drop, Chan was disqualified from the nomination and ran as an independent.
Incumbent Conrad Santos dropped out of the running when news of his own possible nomination hi jinx came to light. Angie, by all accounts a nice woman, was previously an unknown quantity in the NDP. She ran for the party nomination and won with the support of the membership signed up by Chan.
As you will recall, at the time of the writ, Chan ran as an independent, but all his materials were in NDP green and orange. Santos also ran, but came dead last.
So, shortly before the official Elections Manitoba nomination deadline Ramos quit, citing health problems. The party convinced Flor Marcelino to carry the party banner and made a direct appointment. Flor won.
Word on the street is Chan had his hands all over the Ramos nomination as his back-up plan. Ramos would resign after the nomination deadline, the NDP would have no candidate in Wellington. Chan would run as the seeming-NDP candidate and scoop up the seat in the vacuum.
Ramos, however, couldn't handle the pressure of the deception and was literally sick with worry about it and came clean before the nomination deadline, messing up Chan's grand plan.
Now, it seems the questionable Chan has somehow convinced Ramos to fall back in line and has enlisted the questionably-stable Kevin Lamoureux to make some hay with the invention of a new tale for the media.
At least it isn't dull.
--------------------------
Both Samyn and Chantal Hebert [UPDATE: as did Mia] wax eloquent about Gary Doer's new status as the official dean of the First Ministers' club. It will be very interesting over the next few years to see Manitoba's place on the national scene even more elevated and what that could mean for the Keystone Province.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
"Intriguing" possibility?
The Canadian sports media is all atwitter today with the latest speculation an NHL team may land back in Winnipeg.Of course the most obvious thing to say is, "wouldn't that be ironic?"
Ironic, as Hugh's Jets promise during the election campaign was roundly pilloried as a Hail Mary pass he couldn't possibly deliver on. And a community that was already burned -- burned badly -- by the economics of the NHL didn't take too well to the notion.
Jack Reimer expressed publicly what other Tories were facing on the doorstep -- Conservative stalwarts pissed right off about Hugh playing fast and loose with the public purse strings even before he had a chance to sit in the big chair.
Now, Hugh likely would have lost anyway, without the Jets gaffe. He had tried to gain momentum with his Crime and Punishment tour the previous week, to no apparent avail.
Crime is a salient issue. But as we saw, there was no evidence that it was pushing voters either away from the NDP or towards the Conservatives. On top of all that, crime tends to be a bigger issue in bedrock NDP core area and north end ridings, not the south and west suburbs which were the key battlegrounds.
Let's not forget as well that it seems unlikely Gary Doer would have pulled the plug and gone to the people if NDP internal polling showed anything remotely like Probe's picture of a 40-40 tie in the pre-election period.
We could go on at length about a variety of other reasons the Tories didn't gain ground in the writ period, but actually lost ground (not least of which was their disastrous TV ad campaign). But we will spare our readers a rehash of much of what has already been in the mainstream media.
Huey has already opined that it would be ironic in his view if the NHL actually did come back to the Peg, as it would have proved him right all along.
Of course that is nonsense.
If the Jets -- or a team of another name -- ever comes back, the private backers and Gary Doer will have to do a hell of a job convincing Manitobans they are not busting the treasury wide open and that the team has long term prospects that seem realistic in a market that may balk at tickets ranging anywhere from $40 - $120 per seat.
But if all the stars align, and the Jets do come back, it will not be because Hugh McFadyen was cheated. For all his promising of a return of the Jets within four years, the public knew better. If the NHL returns, it will be because a lot of advance work has been done by Mark Chipman, et al, as well as the leadership of the private sector and the Doer government in forging ahead with the MTS Centre.
After that, it will be a lot of hard work by private proponents and a whole lot of factors we do not control coming together to shine on Winnipeg.
Friday, May 25, 2007
Alas, hindsight, the greatest of all lenses
Jack Reimer blames Huey's Jets promise for his demise in Southdale.
"I told the people at the door, I said, there's no way I would be part of any government that's going to give public funding to a professional hockey team to get them back in here," CBC reports Reimer saying.
"Definitely, it couldn't have come from someone that's been around politics for years and can sense — there's a certain sense and a certain smell that you can put with certain things," he added.
He is also quoted in other media claiming the first time he heard of the Jets promise was down at the MTS Centre where he had been summoned.
So, on the phone that fateful May 7 morning, Jack is commanded to the MTS Centre. Jack complies, apparently unaware of what the announcement was.
Jack arrives and is told to put on a white Jets jersey. Jack complies, still apparently unaware of what the announcement was.
Hugh makes announcement to bring back the Jets. Jack cheers enthusiastically along with the rest of the candidates, as you could clearly see in the TV coverage. He apparently still does not understand what the announcement is, as he would never countenance government involvement in bringing back the Jets.
Jack hits the doorstep. He meets voter outrage. He THEN finally understands what the announcement was all about.
----------------------------------
Huey and supporters have circled the wagons pretty fast around his leadership. Here's his spin, recounting how he could not get election-ready within a full year:
"There were limits to how much change I could inflict on the party," CBC quotes him as saying this morning.
Inflict?
Well, we guess we'll see how much change the party famous for back stabbing may be inflicting on Huey in the next while.
However, we actually hope Huey sticks around, surviving the inevitable slings and arrows of outrageous Tory fortune.
If he is given the chance, will he improve over the next four years? Quite possibly.
Will he be a formidable foe, though? Quite unlikely.
He is arrogant, self-satisfied and cannot shake his backroom-boy approach to the job.
More importantly, let's not forget the PCs would need to gain 10 seats now -- that's right, TEN seats -- in order to form a bare majority in the house.
And most of those seats they would need to take from the NDP are in Winnipeg. So which ones are they?
Every Winnipeg seat they targetted in this election, including ones gained by the NDP in 2003, were won by team Doer with an even greater plurality than the previous outing.
Fast forward four years from now with Erin Selby and Sharon Blady working their constituencies hard, following the example set by the 2003 "Southern Belles", transforming steals from the PCs into solid NDP seats.
Realistically, it will take a heck of a lot for the PCs to win in 2011.
We look forward to the prospect of a four-peat.
"I told the people at the door, I said, there's no way I would be part of any government that's going to give public funding to a professional hockey team to get them back in here," CBC reports Reimer saying.
"Definitely, it couldn't have come from someone that's been around politics for years and can sense — there's a certain sense and a certain smell that you can put with certain things," he added.
He is also quoted in other media claiming the first time he heard of the Jets promise was down at the MTS Centre where he had been summoned.
So, on the phone that fateful May 7 morning, Jack is commanded to the MTS Centre. Jack complies, apparently unaware of what the announcement was.
Jack arrives and is told to put on a white Jets jersey. Jack complies, still apparently unaware of what the announcement was.
Hugh makes announcement to bring back the Jets. Jack cheers enthusiastically along with the rest of the candidates, as you could clearly see in the TV coverage. He apparently still does not understand what the announcement is, as he would never countenance government involvement in bringing back the Jets.
Jack hits the doorstep. He meets voter outrage. He THEN finally understands what the announcement was all about.
----------------------------------
Huey and supporters have circled the wagons pretty fast around his leadership. Here's his spin, recounting how he could not get election-ready within a full year:
"There were limits to how much change I could inflict on the party," CBC quotes him as saying this morning.
Inflict?
Well, we guess we'll see how much change the party famous for back stabbing may be inflicting on Huey in the next while.
However, we actually hope Huey sticks around, surviving the inevitable slings and arrows of outrageous Tory fortune.
If he is given the chance, will he improve over the next four years? Quite possibly.
Will he be a formidable foe, though? Quite unlikely.
He is arrogant, self-satisfied and cannot shake his backroom-boy approach to the job.
More importantly, let's not forget the PCs would need to gain 10 seats now -- that's right, TEN seats -- in order to form a bare majority in the house.
And most of those seats they would need to take from the NDP are in Winnipeg. So which ones are they?
Every Winnipeg seat they targetted in this election, including ones gained by the NDP in 2003, were won by team Doer with an even greater plurality than the previous outing.
Fast forward four years from now with Erin Selby and Sharon Blady working their constituencies hard, following the example set by the 2003 "Southern Belles", transforming steals from the PCs into solid NDP seats.
Realistically, it will take a heck of a lot for the PCs to win in 2011.
We look forward to the prospect of a four-peat.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Hugh = Stu-lite
Picture Stu Murray at home last night watching the election coverage. When the dust settled, McFadyen's seat yield was less than Murray's in 2003.
He had to be laughing his ass off.
The man who faced the long knives of his party for winning only 20 seats in 2003, who ran an under-funded campaign with few Tory backroom war horses putting their shoulder to the wheel for the cause.
As Murray is reported telling people these days about that time, all the PC power brokers who shooed him into the job to replace Filmon were nowhere in sight come election time.
No cash. No horses to drive the cart.
The pundits predicted oblivion and Probe predicted NDP "landslide". But Stu held on to 20 seats. No oblivion.
Then by Fall 2005, it was over. The "committee" put enough pressure on Stu that he had to quit.
Once again the PCs lived up to their well-earned reputation of eating their own.
A year ago the Tory elite put their hopes in Huey. A new, fresh, younger, energetic face to the party of dour pessimism.
A year later. Millions of dollars spent in a campaign. Lots of hype. What have they got to show for it?
19 seats.
Chuckle on, Mr. Murray. Chuckle on.
(UPDATE: We just read our pal Tom Blowback's column, essentially the same thought as above. "Great" minds must think alike.)
-------------------------------------
Whaaaat? Free Press declares Patrick O'Connor (who he?) in Lac du Bonnet.
(To be fair, it must be quite the scramble to put together the election edition of a newspaper, with late results and tight timelines. But we suspect this was a legacy of the mocked up page done in advance that editors forgot and left on. Good for another little E +1 chuckle, though.)
----------------------
Catherine Mitchell. Is she just channeling a grumpy old man to fit in at the FreeP editorial board or is she really that sour and cranky?
Her column today, entitled "For the PCs, tomorrow is a new day", her thesis is essentially the same as the Conservatives' radio ads over the last few days: The NDP has stolen the campaign by lying; we've been cheated.
Check this out: "But this is an extraordinary third majority of the NDP and it will not last either."
Geez. Thanks, Catherine (or can we call you Cathy?). You've really cleared up that democracy, people-have-a-choice thing that was confusing us about the next election.
--------------------
Probing polls
Compare the popular vote today to Probe's published results last week.
Probe poll: NDP - 44%, PC - 37%, Lib - 16%
Election 2007: NDP - 48%, PC - 38%, Lib - 12%
So, not as far out at the 2003 "landslide" prediction, but they show some interesting things.
If the Probe poll was an accurate snapshot, then Liberals were tanking in the dying days of the campaign.
Why would that be? Most according to Probe felt the NDP was on a winning trajectory anyway. So fear of a Tory win was not squeezing Liberal considerers in the run up to election day to strategically support the NDP in a raw anti-Tory push.
In fact, if the last days of the campaign were any indication, the PCs were desperate to shore up their base support with Hugh's accusations of Doer "lying", etc. and their angry, nay, desperate radio ads over the long weekend accusing Gary Doer of every malfeasance in the book and urging voters to simply "vote against the NDP".
So if anyone showed signs of sliding in terms of their campaign activity, it was the PCs.
Now, anyone who read to the bottom of the story would see that the Probe poll was only just outside the claimed margin of error of 3.5% of the actual result.
So, one has to conclude either the Liberals were never up to 16% and Probe's methodology for whatever reason propped them up beyond their strength. Or, four per cent of Liberal support ran to the NDP in the last week of the campaign for no apparent reason.
Hmmm.
---------------------------------------
And lastly, a big congratulations, Mr. Doer.
He had to be laughing his ass off.
The man who faced the long knives of his party for winning only 20 seats in 2003, who ran an under-funded campaign with few Tory backroom war horses putting their shoulder to the wheel for the cause.
As Murray is reported telling people these days about that time, all the PC power brokers who shooed him into the job to replace Filmon were nowhere in sight come election time.
No cash. No horses to drive the cart.
The pundits predicted oblivion and Probe predicted NDP "landslide". But Stu held on to 20 seats. No oblivion.
Then by Fall 2005, it was over. The "committee" put enough pressure on Stu that he had to quit.
Once again the PCs lived up to their well-earned reputation of eating their own.
A year ago the Tory elite put their hopes in Huey. A new, fresh, younger, energetic face to the party of dour pessimism.
A year later. Millions of dollars spent in a campaign. Lots of hype. What have they got to show for it?
19 seats.
Chuckle on, Mr. Murray. Chuckle on.
(UPDATE: We just read our pal Tom Blowback's column, essentially the same thought as above. "Great" minds must think alike.)
-------------------------------------
Whaaaat? Free Press declares Patrick O'Connor (who he?) in Lac du Bonnet.
(To be fair, it must be quite the scramble to put together the election edition of a newspaper, with late results and tight timelines. But we suspect this was a legacy of the mocked up page done in advance that editors forgot and left on. Good for another little E +1 chuckle, though.)
----------------------
Catherine Mitchell. Is she just channeling a grumpy old man to fit in at the FreeP editorial board or is she really that sour and cranky?
Her column today, entitled "For the PCs, tomorrow is a new day", her thesis is essentially the same as the Conservatives' radio ads over the last few days: The NDP has stolen the campaign by lying; we've been cheated.
Check this out: "But this is an extraordinary third majority of the NDP and it will not last either."
Geez. Thanks, Catherine (or can we call you Cathy?). You've really cleared up that democracy, people-have-a-choice thing that was confusing us about the next election.
--------------------
Probing polls
Compare the popular vote today to Probe's published results last week.
Probe poll: NDP - 44%, PC - 37%, Lib - 16%
Election 2007: NDP - 48%, PC - 38%, Lib - 12%
So, not as far out at the 2003 "landslide" prediction, but they show some interesting things.
If the Probe poll was an accurate snapshot, then Liberals were tanking in the dying days of the campaign.
Why would that be? Most according to Probe felt the NDP was on a winning trajectory anyway. So fear of a Tory win was not squeezing Liberal considerers in the run up to election day to strategically support the NDP in a raw anti-Tory push.
In fact, if the last days of the campaign were any indication, the PCs were desperate to shore up their base support with Hugh's accusations of Doer "lying", etc. and their angry, nay, desperate radio ads over the long weekend accusing Gary Doer of every malfeasance in the book and urging voters to simply "vote against the NDP".
So if anyone showed signs of sliding in terms of their campaign activity, it was the PCs.
Now, anyone who read to the bottom of the story would see that the Probe poll was only just outside the claimed margin of error of 3.5% of the actual result.
So, one has to conclude either the Liberals were never up to 16% and Probe's methodology for whatever reason propped them up beyond their strength. Or, four per cent of Liberal support ran to the NDP in the last week of the campaign for no apparent reason.
Hmmm.
---------------------------------------
And lastly, a big congratulations, Mr. Doer.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
A good reason why Hugh will not only lose today, but deserve to lose
Pictured above is not a piece of NDP propaganda. It's the headline from the May 16 editorial in the Thompson Citizen.Now, many of you southern folks will say, "Thompson Citizen? Yellow-dog NDP country. Who cares?"
While it's true "Landslide Ashton" has a strong hold on the northern seat (although he first won a gazillion years ago by just a hair), the Thompson Citizen is no NDP cheering section. In fact, not long ago it proclaimed its support for Huey McFading as premier.
That has changed -- hoo boy, has it ever.
And the reason why they had a change of heart is laid out plain in the editorial. Refering to McGriddle's agriculture policy announcement in Brandon earlier this month, the Citizen says:
"McFadyen accused the NDP of politicizing where highway dollars are spent. He said that the Conservatives would spend the same $400 million a year on highway(s), but if elected, his government would cahnge how the money is allotted, which would mean more spending in the south...
"A premier needs to represent the entire province and not only the regions where you have high support. Why even run candidates in the four northern ridings, if the region is going to be treated in this manner? He certainly has it right in Flin Flon where there is no Tory candidate (on) the ballot."
And it ends with a blistering line:
"In fact, McFadyen, you aren't welcome in Thompson."
Now, apparently the Conservative campaign denies saying the above statement, which was reported in the Brandon Sun by Curtis Brown. Brown stands by the report.
So, what is the relevance of an editorial in a regional newspaper? A lot actually.
They hit the point on the head. As premier, you have to govern for the whole province, despite where your political base is.
This is something we have seen since 1999. Despite little hope of winning in southern Manitoba yellow-dog Tory seats, there has been plenty of government largesse all over the province. Certainly, the north has seen a significant increase over the Filmon years, to make up for years of under-investment. But no one can credibly claim neglect in PC stronghold seats.
This is what it takes to be premier -- even premier-in-waiting. To be premier you can't just be a glorified mayor of Winnipeg with a rural rump in your pocket.
His crass position to cater for southern votes is a clear symbol of McFadyen's lack of appreciation of the entire province. Which means not only will he lose today and severely underperform expectations, but he also deserves to lose.
Monday, May 21, 2007
E minus one ...
Mia tears into Hugh's poor grasp of his own numbers.
"Will the tax cuts cost $586 million? $682 million? $723 million? $800 million? I’ve heard all the figures this week from Hugh and Gerald Hawranik."
Wow. This from the party of fiscal probity?
The guy can't explain where he thinks the money is coming from and he can't even explain how much money he's talking about.
And they get angry when it's asserted he probably can't do it without cutting core government services?
And they wonder why Hugh is tanking.
---------------------------
Overall, Dan is lukewarm on the parties' ads in this campaign.
No one seems to meet the Sausage Man's broadcast standards, with the NDP at the top of the pack, eking out a B+.
But he saves his worst for the beleaguered Tories:
"An ad the Tories call 'Worried' is beyond hyperbole; it's downright dangerous in its irresponsible portrayal of downtown Winnipeg. It's hard to tell if the ad people think this gloomy image is realistic, or whether they are aware they're essentially lying to voters."
The thing that's the most important here, and a point Dan misses altogether, is not whether journalists like them or not -- it's whether they seem to be effective in changing voter opinion.
And if the Probe poll is any indication, the NDP's ads work. The Liberals do not. And the Conservatives' ads are helping the NDP.
On that note, word is that the PC ad guru in this campaign is Barb Biggar -- former Filmon communications supremo who has put out her shingle in the private sector for over a decade now. She has a reputation as a shrewd, smart operator.
This campaign, however, may well tarnish that rep. Screaming man? What were you thinking?
And the NDP is responsible for feeling unsafe in empty parking garages at night? Whaaaa?
We've always felt uneasy in parking garages -- yes, even when Gary Filmon was premier. Even before that, too.
It's one of the biggest cliche scenes in Hollywood's vocabulary. And now, according to Team McFadyen, the NDP invented it.
Yeah, not just irresponsible, but more importantly they really missed the mark and it's not connecting with voters.
Just how far off the mark we'll see on Tuesday.
-------------------------------------
Hugh goes after government advertising in a pre-election period:
"McFadyen acknowledged that is something all governments have been known to do, including the former Tory government in 1999 when he was the party’s chief of staff. In fact, in May 1999, McFadyen was advised in a memo from the Tories' campaign manager to run government ads on health care and education because the NDP were gaining on those issues."
Hmmm. So we guess he would have some inside information on this issue.
----------------------------------------
Funniest column of the campaign: our pal Bunkbeck's blog, entitled: "Doer smarter than your average chicken."
Oddest moment: Huey calling Doer "desperate" and "a liar", then feeling no shame in claiming the Tories have run a "positive campaign".
"Will the tax cuts cost $586 million? $682 million? $723 million? $800 million? I’ve heard all the figures this week from Hugh and Gerald Hawranik."
Wow. This from the party of fiscal probity?
The guy can't explain where he thinks the money is coming from and he can't even explain how much money he's talking about.
And they get angry when it's asserted he probably can't do it without cutting core government services?
And they wonder why Hugh is tanking.
---------------------------
Overall, Dan is lukewarm on the parties' ads in this campaign.
No one seems to meet the Sausage Man's broadcast standards, with the NDP at the top of the pack, eking out a B+.
But he saves his worst for the beleaguered Tories:
"An ad the Tories call 'Worried' is beyond hyperbole; it's downright dangerous in its irresponsible portrayal of downtown Winnipeg. It's hard to tell if the ad people think this gloomy image is realistic, or whether they are aware they're essentially lying to voters."
The thing that's the most important here, and a point Dan misses altogether, is not whether journalists like them or not -- it's whether they seem to be effective in changing voter opinion.
And if the Probe poll is any indication, the NDP's ads work. The Liberals do not. And the Conservatives' ads are helping the NDP.
On that note, word is that the PC ad guru in this campaign is Barb Biggar -- former Filmon communications supremo who has put out her shingle in the private sector for over a decade now. She has a reputation as a shrewd, smart operator.
This campaign, however, may well tarnish that rep. Screaming man? What were you thinking?
And the NDP is responsible for feeling unsafe in empty parking garages at night? Whaaaa?
We've always felt uneasy in parking garages -- yes, even when Gary Filmon was premier. Even before that, too.
It's one of the biggest cliche scenes in Hollywood's vocabulary. And now, according to Team McFadyen, the NDP invented it.
Yeah, not just irresponsible, but more importantly they really missed the mark and it's not connecting with voters.
Just how far off the mark we'll see on Tuesday.
-------------------------------------
Hugh goes after government advertising in a pre-election period:
"McFadyen acknowledged that is something all governments have been known to do, including the former Tory government in 1999 when he was the party’s chief of staff. In fact, in May 1999, McFadyen was advised in a memo from the Tories' campaign manager to run government ads on health care and education because the NDP were gaining on those issues."
Hmmm. So we guess he would have some inside information on this issue.
----------------------------------------
Funniest column of the campaign: our pal Bunkbeck's blog, entitled: "Doer smarter than your average chicken."Oddest moment: Huey calling Doer "desperate" and "a liar", then feeling no shame in claiming the Tories have run a "positive campaign".
Friday, May 18, 2007
Even Huey's team having a change of heart?
A campaign shocker was on hand with the revelation, shown at left, that the sweatermobile itself seemed to be changing allegiances.-----------------------
What about Probe's polling? Whew! What a ton of charts, graphs, margins of error, parsing of entrails.
We loved hearing Probe supremo Scott McKay on CJOB radio saying the NDP is on a steep decline track -- since 2003! Wow, that decline may have legs by 2011.
Anyway, the interesting thing is McKay doesn't compare his election numbers to his last public poll, showing team Huey and team Gary tied.
There was no explanation why the NDP fortunes have consistently risen over most of the past year in his numbers. Hmmm.
And as usual, the former Liberal Party pollster threw Jon Gerrard a lifeline with giving the doctor some 16% in the polls (guaranteed it won't be that high on Tuesday night) and "minor momentum" of 1% (what the heck is "momentum"? -- never saw that metric before).
Anyway, apparently people's perception of Huey during the campaign has gone down -- a lot. The common wisdom after Tuesday will be that McFadyen blew it with the now-infamous Jets announcement.
We're not so sure.
We believe it's actually the Tory advertising that's mainly to blame.
Their "air war" campaign has been dominated by amateurish, even bizarre ad spots throughout the campaign (including the "revolving door" spot that has Hugh awkwardly throwing down a stack of newspaper headlines and the crazy ranting poor-man's Rick Mercer).
After the election, the PC's in their truest tradition will start sharpening their knives for Hugh -- though he will likely survive that. But more usefully, they should turf their advertising firm.
--------------------------------------
Regarding that ranting guy, who is he? Every local actor we have spoken to says they don't know who he is. Did the Tories have to resort to out of town talent? Hmmm.
Maybe they kept him around to play chicken-man.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Six more sleeps ...
Tuesday is election day. Wow it went fast. Wow nothing really happened.People liked Gary Doer a month ago. Hey, guess what! They still like him.
Global says the Probe poll is in the paper tomorrow morning and reports a few nuggets, like that Hugh has run a campaign no better than Gerrard's. Hmm. Whatever that means.
The Probe Full Monte tomorrow, eh? You know how we like those.
We will chat about that, for sure.
Meanwhile, get a load of Hugh's mug from the Free Press site here -- during his editorial board drone-fest. Looks like an excited chap.
Monday, May 14, 2007
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Sharking the jump
Ooooh. Did he really say that? Bring back the Jets “within four years”?
Undeterred by these not so helpful responses, Cloutier forged ahead, asking a third student. Except that she said she wasn't exactly leaving
-------
After all, it's really just a condemnation of the Tories on health care. You're free to draw your own conclusions.
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Wellington clears itself up ... not bad
The craziest thing about the Wellington mess is that it's turned out well in the end for the NDP.Flor Marcelino is probably one of the best candidates possible for that constituency. Strong, articulate, editor of the Philippine Times, businesswoman, Filipina.
It's all good.
The fact that in this election the most the media has to do is speculate the NDP might be in tough (after finishing with 75% of the vote in 2003) because there are two independents (former NDP) with ties to the Filipino community also running. Bonne chance to all of you but Flor only has to make clear to Wellingtonites SHE is indeed the NDP candidate.
Hesse apologizes
"I, Paul Hesse, would like to apologize to Jennifer Howard for the actions of a member of my campaign team. He acted without my knowledge or authorization. As I mentioned to Jennifer, I want this to be a positive campaign about ideas. I sincerely apologize."
This message, we understand, was also sent to the Howard campaign as well as the BBAs. We do not yet see it on Paul Hesse's web site.
This message, we understand, was also sent to the Howard campaign as well as the BBAs. We do not yet see it on Paul Hesse's web site.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Pathetic Liberal silliness in Fort Rouge
A correspondent writes:“On the morning of May 1, a young man came into the Jennifer Howard campaign asking to volunteer. Jennifer was in the office getting ready to go canvassing, he saw her and the first question he asked was what she thought of her Liberal opponent Paul Hesse.
“This peculiar question immediately caught the attention of campaign staff. Howard gave a very diplomatic answer saying she had met him, he is a lawyer and seemed nice. The man introduced himself as Matt Cohen, saying he was from Oakbank and wanted to canvass but had never done it before so wanted someone to take him out.
“He was informed a couple nights later, the campaign was sending out three groups and that would be a good night for him to go out.
“Young Mr. Cohen agreed and asked if he could 'drop a poll' by himself right away. Hmm, never done it before, eh? Staff politely suggested he just come back on Thursday. He asked for copies of all Howard’s literature, which he gave him and he left.
“Now very suspicious, campaign staff looked up Hesse’s staff on Facebook and matched one name with 'Cohen's' phone number supplied on the Howard campaign's sign up sheet.
“Our culprit is actually named Richard William Liebrecht (circled in the above picture with Jon Gerrard) – on staff with the Hesse campaign. In an online exchange later that day, Liebrecht admitted his deception with the campaign manager."
Paul Hesse. Isn't he the guy advertising about raw sewage in Osborne Village? Clearly stategic geniuses are working for him.
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Преступление и наказание *
Not unexpectedly, Huey followed "Hi, I'm Hugh -- I have a sweater" week with "River City = Crime City" week, attempting to exploit recent headlines on crime as a rocket to the top of the political pile.
Unfortunately for the boy wonder, his first public safety announcement on Monday (350 "crime fighters"? -- good god is it "axis of evil" next?) was panned all the way from braniac criminologists to his usual cheerleader Tom Blowback.
We are especially fond of Dan Lett's phrase "the plural of annecdote is not data" referring to sensational headlines as proof Winnipeg has an especially serious crime problem.
We especially love Huey's crime ad, featuring the Sweater-Clad Crime Fighter throwing down editions of Winnipeg dailies with their screaming headlines. It could only be improved if our besweatered Superhero ended the scene in his bitchiest voice "This crime has got to stop. And I mean it".
His prescriptions are truly laughable. They amount to looking at the NDP's tough-on-crime proposals and just doubling them. "I see your cops and raise you 100" or whatever. "I see your crowns and we'll add even more."
Nothing on what to do about kids. Nothing on needing the criminal code to be changed, unlike Stephen Harper's line.
On Wednesday Hugh, a trained lawyer along with Kelvin Goertzen, another trained lawyer, called for requiring Crown prosecutors to pursue the maximum sentences (and we thought the prosecutions branch was supposed to be independent of the Justice Minister and cabinet) and, further, directing them to make sure there are "No conditional sentences for sexual offences involving minors".
Uh, we're pretty sure the Criminal Code says that people convicted of any sexual offence aren't eligible for conditional sentences. Chomiak (another trained lawyer) should likely have jumped on that. Ah, well.
Our favourite though was today's announcement of (ta-dah) a new jail! (Or new gaol, if you want to tart it up a bit more.)
Wow. That's going to wow 'em in the Winnipeg suburbs. More jails, now we can feel good about living in McFadyen's Manitoba.
It juxtaposed pretty well with Gary Doer promising lots more new wind farms.
Hmm. More jails or more wind farms? Can't decide which we like better.
* Crime and Punishment
-----------------------------
Did anyone notice Huey throwing out an afterthought news release on more child care spaces, which essentially said "yeah, like, what the NDP is doing -- whatever, we're like so that"?
If Hugh cares so much about child care spaces and staffing, why doesn't he call on special friend, Steve Harper, to restore the child care agreement that Harper cancelled?
Talk about leading with your chin.
-----------------------------
"No one told me to dress up ..."
Good god. Christine McGhee is not just the bizarre flake who was running for the Liberals in Kirkfield Park, then bolted to try for the Tory nomination unsuccessfully. She also then successfully got the Tory nod in St. James. (Whew ... you need a program just to figure this one out.) But now she has been a prop (yikes! did we say that) all week at McGriddle's crime announcements.
Unfortunately on Wednesday, as you can see above, she had some unfortunate footwear mishap. You can click here to see the fulsome picture.
----------------------------
Mucho thanks to eagle-eyed readers for tips and suggestions.
Unfortunately for the boy wonder, his first public safety announcement on Monday (350 "crime fighters"? -- good god is it "axis of evil" next?) was panned all the way from braniac criminologists to his usual cheerleader Tom Blowback.
We are especially fond of Dan Lett's phrase "the plural of annecdote is not data" referring to sensational headlines as proof Winnipeg has an especially serious crime problem.
We especially love Huey's crime ad, featuring the Sweater-Clad Crime Fighter throwing down editions of Winnipeg dailies with their screaming headlines. It could only be improved if our besweatered Superhero ended the scene in his bitchiest voice "This crime has got to stop. And I mean it".
His prescriptions are truly laughable. They amount to looking at the NDP's tough-on-crime proposals and just doubling them. "I see your cops and raise you 100" or whatever. "I see your crowns and we'll add even more."
Nothing on what to do about kids. Nothing on needing the criminal code to be changed, unlike Stephen Harper's line.
On Wednesday Hugh, a trained lawyer along with Kelvin Goertzen, another trained lawyer, called for requiring Crown prosecutors to pursue the maximum sentences (and we thought the prosecutions branch was supposed to be independent of the Justice Minister and cabinet) and, further, directing them to make sure there are "No conditional sentences for sexual offences involving minors".
Uh, we're pretty sure the Criminal Code says that people convicted of any sexual offence aren't eligible for conditional sentences. Chomiak (another trained lawyer) should likely have jumped on that. Ah, well.
Our favourite though was today's announcement of (ta-dah) a new jail! (Or new gaol, if you want to tart it up a bit more.)
Wow. That's going to wow 'em in the Winnipeg suburbs. More jails, now we can feel good about living in McFadyen's Manitoba.
It juxtaposed pretty well with Gary Doer promising lots more new wind farms.
Hmm. More jails or more wind farms? Can't decide which we like better.
* Crime and Punishment
-----------------------------
Did anyone notice Huey throwing out an afterthought news release on more child care spaces, which essentially said "yeah, like, what the NDP is doing -- whatever, we're like so that"?
If Hugh cares so much about child care spaces and staffing, why doesn't he call on special friend, Steve Harper, to restore the child care agreement that Harper cancelled?
Talk about leading with your chin.
-----------------------------
"No one told me to dress up ..."
Good god. Christine McGhee is not just the bizarre flake who was running for the Liberals in Kirkfield Park, then bolted to try for the Tory nomination unsuccessfully. She also then successfully got the Tory nod in St. James. (Whew ... you need a program just to figure this one out.) But now she has been a prop (yikes! did we say that) all week at McGriddle's crime announcements.Unfortunately on Wednesday, as you can see above, she had some unfortunate footwear mishap. You can click here to see the fulsome picture.
----------------------------
Mucho thanks to eagle-eyed readers for tips and suggestions.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Tom abandons Hugh
We are putting Brodbeck back in our "maybe we like" category.
For the second week in a row he pulls a counter-intuitive move and craps on Team Sweater for their major Monday announcements.
First, it was the PST cut. Tom said it was dumb, which it is.
Now, he says (on his blog, anyway) that their crime announcement simply bites, calling it "thin gruel".
Hugh doesn't seem to be able to even count on his friends in this contest.
--------------------
What about them Bombers? Looks like a new stadium is coming. The only question that really remains is will David Asper get his way and pry the team from public ownership or not?
---------------------
OK, OK, OK, OK .... After dozens of you guys correcting me, I cave. I give in. My hopes for Sprinfield dashed.
Alright, you got me. When I was talking about NDP steals in this election from the other guys, I meant Southdale, not Springfield.
Sue me.
For the second week in a row he pulls a counter-intuitive move and craps on Team Sweater for their major Monday announcements.
First, it was the PST cut. Tom said it was dumb, which it is.
Now, he says (on his blog, anyway) that their crime announcement simply bites, calling it "thin gruel".
Hugh doesn't seem to be able to even count on his friends in this contest.
--------------------
What about them Bombers? Looks like a new stadium is coming. The only question that really remains is will David Asper get his way and pry the team from public ownership or not?
---------------------
OK, OK, OK, OK .... After dozens of you guys correcting me, I cave. I give in. My hopes for Sprinfield dashed.
Alright, you got me. When I was talking about NDP steals in this election from the other guys, I meant Southdale, not Springfield.
Sue me.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)